Last night, I witnessed more than a dozen startup founders ride up and down an elevator. Yes, they were pitching to investors. In less than 30 seconds, each one needed to cover what problem they are solving, what value their product brings to the world, and why they are the right team for the job.
The adrenaline was pumping and nerves were shaking. It was a fun experience, but the reality, however, is that success is hard to come by. And if and when it does happen, it’s not the time it takes to pitch that counts so much as the timing.
Timing is important. In fact, it’s so crucial that a study from Idealab founder Bill Gross says it accounts for 42 percent of the difference between a startup failing or succeeding. Remember Napster? It popped up in the summer of 1999 and closed down just two years later. (It was too progressive for its own good, and it also broke myriad laws.) Peer-to-peer MP3 sharing itself actually dates back further to 1994 with the man who broke the music business. Being too far ahead of your time in a nascent market (or too far behind in a mature one) can be the difference between going big and going bankrupt.
When it’s bad
My timing hasn’t always been so pretty–in fact, sometimes it has plain sucked. Just before the turn of the century, my first career in the music industry depended on selling vinyl records. Sales for vinyl albums and singles were bottoming out, and it appeared that both would soon become obsolete.
My foray into fashion was no better timed. I launched fashion brands that quickly became popular with retailers like Urban Outfitters and Topshop. Things went swimmingly—at least until the fast fashion movement erupted. Newcomers like H&M, Zara, and Primark extinguished demand for traditional brands. That’s when I really learned the meaning of “innovate or die.”
When it’s good
I have been fortunate to have some good timing, too. Leading the launch of London’s first fashion and technology accelerator happened right at the sweet spot when the “FashTech” movement was gaining steam. Bourgeoning startups from the first cohort included Tinder-for-shoes startup Stylect and designer brand Vinaya. Shortly afterward, incubators and investment funds focused on fashion popped up. The icing on the cake was when Wired released its “Fashion Goes Tech” edition.
And last year, with the launch of the U.K.’s first hardware incubator, the Central Research Laboratory, I have been a part of a new breed of businesses that are already making waves. These include digital drawing startup Canvas and electromechanical glove maker Learning Hand. The timing this time around seems impeccable.
When it’s great
One look at emerging startups today and many are just an exploitation of the dated Craigslist page. Those that appear to be in the right place at the right time are not just capitalizing on peer-to-peer network effects, but on the maturity of a particular geographic region.
Timing today for a smart startup couldn’t be riper, particularly in Asia. In addition to being in the right place at the right time, those starting up or entering this market can also benefit from favorable government programs, the swift rise of the middle class, and a growing user base that will soon make up over half of the word’s population.
Ironically for me, it is vinyl records that are witnessing a revival. Cassette tapes and compact discs may have gone the way of the dodo bird—but vinyl is now the craft beer of music formats. It’s got me thinking that if you have the audacity to stick with something long enough, it just might come back around again.